Monday, March 23, 2009

Rank Em: Sweet 16 Combatants

Typically, I hate power rankings in the NCAA Tournament. I could care less about figuring out who the best team is out of the 16 left. A big determining factor in who advances are the match-ups that happen. The second best team may very well get bounced in the round of 16 because they happened to have to play the best team. It's not an exact science. Nevertheless, these types of rankings are easy to do, and I'm lazy, so here you go:

(Rankings based on: Performance thus far, projected match-ups and personal bias)

1. UConn: It's hard to put them anywhere but number one, as they were the only top seed to vaporize everything in their path, laying waste to Chattanooga and Texas A&M. Now they get a Purdue team that doesn't have anyone to stop Hasheem Thabeet or A.J. Price, and look like a lock for the Elite 8, at least.

2. Louisville: The Cardinals need not be ashamed of their inability to put Siena away, as the Saints were probably the second or third-hardest second round draw for any team. Only Pitt and North Carolina can argue that they were playing a better squad. That said, Louisville's withering press continues to work for them, and as long as Terence Williams sustains his high level of play, and there's no reason to believe he won't, the 'Ville can expect a trip to the Final Four.

3. North Carolina: Love them or hate them, and I hate them because I can't stand the adulation heaped on Tyler Hansbrough, the Tar Heels ran into a very game LSU team and ended up winning comfortably in the final five minutes. Ty Lawson went nuts in the second half and hit every big shot for the Heels, and that bodes well for their chances to get all the way to the national title game.

4. Memphis: After getting the biggest scare this side of Pitt in the first round at the hands of Cal State Northridge, the Tigers rebounded by beating the snot out of Maryland, and in doing so looking like the team everyone expected them to be. If they can channel more of that play (or misguided anger at being properly seeded as a 2), we, the viewing nation, are headed for an epic West Regional Final.

5. Pittsburgh: Them being ranked outside of the top four slots is more due to their awful game against East Tennessee State than anything. They played a very underseeded Oklahoma State team in the second round and hung tough with them while they made every shot they looked at in the first half. That the Panthers pulled away in the late stages shows they still might yet be a threat to go all the way. A favorable Sweet 16 match-up with Xavier should allow them to put the Sweet 16 jinx to rest.

6. Villanova: If you judge them on their last 50 total minutes of basketball, they have to be the favorite to win the whole thing, not just the East Regional. However, they were playing their first two games on their home floor, in front of home fans. That surely did wonders for them against American, and couldn't have hurt against UCLA. Still, they ought to make the regional final, as Duke simply has no answer for them at most positions.

7. Michigan State: If any team has flown under the radar in this tourney, it's been the Spartans. Their win over Robert Morris was a ho-hum affair, and they survived a tough USC team that put forth a spirited effort, yet watching the game, I never felt they were in much trouble. They'll get all they want from Kansas, yet you have to think that their experience will win out over the young Jayhawks.

8. Oklahoma: Another case of a team flying under the radar. The Sooners have a tough run against Syracuse, and if Blake Griffin is in foul trouble, it's game, set, match. By the way, I admire Griffin for the way he avoids losing his temper on the court and subsequently committing a Class 3 felony, but his brother Taylor can suck it. What a whiny little bitch.

9. Duke: Their win over Texas was impressive, and as much as I hate to give credit to him, Jon Scheyer's save of a loose ball was probably the biggest play of the game for the Devils. That said, Scheyer's a fucking baby that looks like he was born with a trust fund spoon in his mouth, so I hope he gets punched in the teeth by someone sooner rather than later.

10. Syracuse: They keep on rolling, and are showing no sign of having residual dead legs from their Big East Tournament run. Hard to imagine any other Sweet 16 games being any better than their clash with Oklahoma and Duke's tussle with Villanova. If Eric Devendorf is going to give them elite level scoring, they'll roll past the Sooners and give North Carolina fits.

11. Kansas: Unfortunate pairing, having to go against Michigan State. If I'm a Kansas fan, I'm sad that I'm not seeing Louisville across the court from my team in this round. MSU's grinding, slow style is not one that Kansas plays well to, and I can't help but think that if they were playing an up and down game with Louisville that they'd have much better luck with it.

12. Missouri: A little unimpressed with their win, because Dominique James didn't really add anything to Marquette with his return, so the Tigers were squeaking by a depleted team that was really closer to a 10 seed than a sixth seed at this point in the proceedings. Still, they should give Memphis fits, as their up and down pressing style can force a lot of mistakes from a team without a great ballhandling point guard, and Memphis' Tyreke Evans is not a great ballhandler.

13. Arizona: Thought the Wildcats were destined for the 16 spot in these rankings, did you? Thought I'd continue to disrespect them, eh? No, they stay out of the cellar, but only because I already have a team in mind for that spot. The game against Louisville should expose all of their shortcomings, i.e. a turnover-prone point guard in Nic Wise, a single viable post presence who can't handle waves of bigs running at him in Jordan Hill, and a "leader" without much heart, in Chase Budinger. I'm not saying they'll get blown out, but I will be stunned if they beat the Cardinals.

14. Gonzaga: Count me in as one of the unimpressed. Western Kentucky was a very good team, better than their seed, but all these people that keep saying Gonzaga might beat UNC must be watching a different team than the one I'm seeing. I don't see any ability to play defense on this squad, whereas on UNC the ability is there, the desire is not. I predict Roy Williams gets the troops to play D on these guys, and the chronically crappy Austin Daye fails to take advantage of his inherent "match-up problemness" to score enough points for the Zags to win.

15. Xavier: They will struggle mightily against Pitt because they don't have a true point guard. Pitt doesn't play great D like their teams of a few years ago did, but they still are very good on that end, and the Musketeers' lack of a guy to initiate solid offensive sets will hurt. B.J. Raymond is going to have to shoot out of his mind for them to have a shot.

16. Purdue: Knocked off a tough Washington team, and that has to impress anyone, but they get Connecticut, and that's bad news. Chris Kramer is going to have to play the game of his life on A.J. Price, assuming the team is smart and assigns him to Price, for the Boilers to have even the slightest chance to spring the upset.


Sweet 16 Picks:

Midwest: Louisville, Michigan State

West: UConn, Memphis

East: Pitt, Villanova

South: UNC, Syracuse

No comments: