IT'S ALL GOING TO HELL

I was at a wedding about 40 miles north of New York City this weekend, close enough to hear the collectively uproarious cheer following the "big news" Monday about Cavaliers superstar LeBron James. This "big news" involved James mentioning Madison Square Garden as his favorite arena, New York as his favorite city and Brooklyn as his favorite borough.

Clearly, this means that LeBron is going to opt out of his contract, become a free agent in the summer of 2010 and leave Cleveland faster than the Rangers on 10 Cent Beer Night. It's the latest in a long line of parts coming together to form one giant LeBron-to-New-York machine. Look at what else has transpired so far:

January 2004 - Nets ownership agrees to sell the team to a New York City real estate developer, with plans to bring Brooklyn its first major sports team since 1957

Likelihood of a LeBron move to New York: 4 (out of 10)

August 2004 - Brooklyn rapper Jay-Z (née Shawn Corey Carter) officially becomes a minority owner of the New Jersey Nets

LeBron Likelihood: 8

Why's he coming to New York? It's gotta be the shoes!

July 8, 2006 - LeBron shows his keen business acumen and signs a three-year extension with the Cavs instead of a five-year deal, which allows him to opt out in the summer of 2010

LeBron Likelihood: 13

February 21, 2007 - LeBron expresses his desire to become not just a basketball star, but a "global icon" in terms of marketing, much like Michael Jordan

LeBron Likelihood: 36

October 4, 2007 - LeBron shows up to Jacobs Field during the American League Division Series in a Yankees cap, prompting Clevelanders to shriek in agony and New Yorkers to shriek in joy

LeBron Likelihood: 145

Barkley was right, no flaky white stuff

April 24, 2008 - LeBron phones his buddy Jay-Z after getting whomped by the Wizards in Game 3 and orders up a diss track on Call-Out Boy (née DeShawn Hieronymous Stevenson), which is quickly delivered and played ad nauseam at Love Night Club in downtown D.C. the next night

LeBron Likelihood: 782

"You Can't See Me"? That's what she said! Haw haw haw haw haw!

May 18, 2008 - LeBron takes the podium after losing Game 7 to the Celtics and says, unprovoked, "I think what we have is very good, but we need to continue to get better, we know that. If that means some personnel changes need to happen, then so be it." What he really means is, "Cleveland sucks, I can't do shit here, New York is da bomb, Roc-A-Fella y'all."

LeBron Likelihood: 10,434

June 30, 2008 - During an interview conducted in New York as part of Team USA's press tour, LeBron says that New York is his favorite city (hometown Akron checking in at No. 5), Brooklyn is his favorite borough (not Manhattan), and re-affirms his love for Madison Square Garden

LeBron Likelihood: Incalculable

...and up there, we could stash DeShawn's Malibu Barbie playset when he spends the night...

Considering all that's taken place, LeBron is 100 percent leaving in the summer of 2010, no doubt about it.

That's the answer you'd get if you ask NBA insiders like Stephen A. Smith and Rob Parker (both native New Yorkers, by the way), who are so sure LeBron is leaving for the Big Apple they'd bet their careers on it. All of their info comes either from "inside sources" or indeterminable reasoning like "watching LeBron's demeanor."

So that means they're way off base, right?

Wrong.

LeBron could very well bolt for New York in 2010, or in 2011, when his current contract actually expires. What's wrong here is that EVERYONE is taking sides about something that's not going to happen for at least two more years.

Two years ago, how many people thought the Celtics would reclaim the NBA throne? Two years ago, how many people thought the Heat would win only 15 games? Two years ago, how many people thought the up-and-coming Bulls would end up with the No. 1 overall draft pick? Two years ago, how many people even knew who Daniel Gibson was?

The Cavs fans who sneer that LeBron will never leave Cleveland are just as dangerous as the New Yorkers who sneer back. So much can happen between now and then that predicting the decision of an exuberant 23-year-old is ludicrous. It's no secret that LeBron loves New York (obviously), but the sports media is so desperate for him to land in a big market that they take a meal when he gives them a nibble. I'm honestly surprised there wasn't more "LeBron to Boston!" talk after he gushed about the great Game 7 on the parquet floor.

Here are two important things to keep in mind as the situation unfolds:

1. Come contract time, the Cavaliers can offer LeBron one more year (about $20 million more) than any other team in the NBA under league rules.

Since LeBron has been in Cleveland, he's been the Rookie of the Year, a two-time All-Star MVP, the host of Saturday Night Live, the host of the ESPYs, the first African-American coverboy for Vogue, and a spokesman for Nike, Vitamin Water/Sprite, Cub Cadet Lawnmowers, Upper Deck trading cards, State Farm Auto Insurance, and Bubblicious Gum, all managed through his own marketing company.

Moral of the story: New York's nice, but LeBron doesn't need it to be a global icon.

Cash flow is his LeBrogative

2. LeBron James is a frontrunner.

He always has been. His childhood rooting interests included the Yankees (four World Series in his lifetime), the Bulls (six titles) and the Cowboys (three Super Bowls). If LeBron followed hockey, he'd probably have rooted for the Red Wings, Avalanche and Devils, all at once.

Moral of the story: Anyone who knows anything about LeBron sees things like Ballcap-gate coming from a mile away.

If you'll excuse me, my boy Tiger Woods is playing in a major

I love the Cavaliers. I love LeBron James. He single-handedly saved basketball in Cleveland. I even like New York and Jay-Z (December 4th might be the best hip-hop song of the new millenium).

That's why I'm going to ignore the New York fluff, and enjoy the two more guaranteed years of King James giving everything he has to the Cavaliers.

If he chooses to one day give it to someone else, so be it.